Is the majority of conjectures confirmed or rejected?

As a layperson I can think of several cases when conjecture was confirmed but none when it was rejected. For instance




Both cases are newsworthy regardless if the conjecture was confirmed or rejected.

How do I improve my question to be more specific?


As formulated, your question is impossible to answer. There is no "central repository" of conjectures, and no way to determine how large a percentage that gets either confirmed or refuted.

(In one sense, the answer is probably that most conjectures are refuted, if you count temporary ideas held by one or a few researchers in their line of work, but I assume that's not what you meant.)

  • $\begingroup$ Not a central repository but maybe a statistical study or interesting article. I bet I am not the first to wonder about this. $\endgroup$ – daniel.sedlacek Sep 29 '15 at 10:48
  • 3
    $\begingroup$ @daniel.sedlacek The OP's parenthesis points the difficulty of circumscribing a canonical list of conjectures. Unless you make this point much more precise, I fail to see which kind of statistical study could exist. $\endgroup$ – Did Sep 29 '15 at 11:21

You must log in to answer this question.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged .