I'll add just a few comments.
You mentioned that you looked at the tooltip shown when adding elementary-set-theory and set-theory (i.e., the tag-excerpt). It is worth mentioning that you can also view the full tag-info for a tag. Although I'd agree that in the case of elementary-set-theory and set-theory it does not add too much.
Another useful things when choosing tags if you are not sure is to look at similar questions. In this case, you could look at related questions shown in the sidebar. And now in the comments several questions about the same - or very similar - thing were mentioned. (The difference is that the linked question is a proof-verification question.) You can see that they are tagged elementary-set-theory. For some general advice on how to choose tags, see: How am I supposed to use tags?
One aspect in which the tags elementary-set-theory and set-theory are special is that there are two users who follow this tag very closely and help maintaining it - among other things, by retagging posts which are tagged incorrectly. They are Asaf Karagila and Andrés E. Caicedo. So AFAICT they are the most experienced users on the site regarding tagging set-theoretical questions. (Still, I had an occasional disagreement with one of them about these tags or some other tags related to set theory. I am only saying that their past activity means that they do have authority in questions related to these two tags. So if a retagging was done by one of them, it is usually in accordance with the way these tags were used in the past.)
About this specific question, I'd say that the sentence "focusing on material usually covered in undergraduate set theory texts" in the tag-info covers basic cardinal arithmetic, but the tag-info could probably be more specific about this.
In the past cardinal arithmetic was explicitly mentioned in the tag-info, it was later edited away. Cardinal arithmetic still can cover wide range of topics from calculating $\aleph_0^{\aleph_0}$ (which I would definitely consider elementary-set-theory) to, for example, Bukovský-Hechler theorem, where I would probably consider (set-theory). (It seems that questions about this result are tagged elementary-set-theory.)
In connection with this particular question it is probably worth mentioning that there also is a separate tag named cardinals.